• From Deployers To Architects – India’s AI Transition

    February 11, 2026 by

    India’s ambitions in artificial intelligence demand a decisive break from digital service provision toward sovereign technology creation. This shift rests on three non-negotiables: robust data infrastructure, sustained R&D investment, and institutions purpose-built to reward innovation.

  • The Algorithmic Bias in America’s Tech Policy

    February 17, 2025 by

    If US tech policy can be thought of as an algorithm, then it has been poorly designed. A faulty approach to AI policy, akin to an algorithm with embedded design flaws, will lead to faulty outcomes – viz. ceding lucrative markets abroad to Chinese competitors.

  • Estimating SGD NEER in Python

    November 20, 2024 by

    An econometric analysis to estimate the SGD NEER in Python using Pandas, SciPy and other relevant libraries. This can be used to construct a proxy FX basket to short or long SGD NEER.

  • Book Review – The Eight Per Cent Solution by Nikhil Gupta

    September 9, 2024 by

    A real world avatar of your undergrad National Income Accounting (NIA) lesson starring the Indian economy. The book argues that maintaining eight percent GDP growth over the long term involves accepting slower growth in the short run. This is a pushback against calls to speed up growth to eight percent urgently and at all costs.

  • The Pound’s Break From The Gold Standard – Part 1

    July 6, 2023 by

    The Pound was the fulcrum of the international gold standard and the world’s reserve currency of choice during the century leading up to World War I. But all this did not prevent Britain from debasing it during the four years of conflict.

    After the war the pound was re-pegged to gold at an overvalued rate that failed to recognize the deterioration in its fair value. Additionally, the US and France accumulated gold in violation of the gold standard system. These dysfunctions led to a drying up of gold flows into Britain and eroded the Pound’s credibility as a reserve currency.

    This is the first of two articles tracing the events leading to the Pound’s break from the gold standard.

  • Book Review – Differing Perspectives on Chinese Growth

    March 17, 2020 by

    Two recent books on the Chinese economy offer different perspectives for the future. China’s Great Wall of Debt by Dinny McMahon adopts a bottom up analysis to heavily discount China’s capability of becoming an engine of global economic growth. The State Strikes Back by Nicholas Lardy addresses the question of China’s growth potential with a top down analysis to arrive at a more open ended conclusion.

  • China’s External Balance Sheet

    October 17, 2019 by

    China is the world’s third largest creditor economy. This article discusses China’s international investment position (IIP) and it’s major components. Monitoring a country’s IIP is important because large gross positions can lead to greater exposure to external shocks.

  • Examining Drivers of Dollar Strength Since 2015

    September 16, 2019 by

    As the world’s reserve currency of choice, the US dollar appreciates when the market perceives a scarcity of safe and liquid dollar assets. This happens when the Fed tightens its monetary policy or during times of global risk aversion. Besides, negative yields on the debt of alternative reserve currencies further reinforces dollar strength in the current scenario.

  • Future Course of RMB Internationalization

    August 3, 2019 by

    The realistic way forward for RMB internationalization is via RMB denominated financing for projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. The evolution in global RMB clearing breaks the dominance of offshore clearing centres while RMB payment cards give more people the opportunity to use the currency.

  • Line in the Sand for RMB Internationalization

    July 27, 2019 by

    Capital controls reinforce the shallowness of China’s financial markets which hinders the RMB internationalization process. More fundamentally, the lack of independence of regulatory bodies and the state’s sway over financial market participants draws a line in the sand for RMB internationalization.

  • A Decade of RMB Internationalization

    July 21, 2019 by

    China has taken full advantage of regional willingness for RMB trade settlement and global hunger for Chinese assets to further RMB internationalization. However, much of the deregulation that has raised the RMB’s global position has been made under duress from international standards.

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